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ABSTRACT
The question of the optimal monetary regime for small open economies
is still wide open. On the one hand, the big selling points of floating
exchange rates – monetary independence and accommodation of terms of
trade shocks – have not lived up to their promise. On the other hand,
proposals for credible institutional monetary commitments to nominal
anchors have each run aground on their own peculiar shoals. Rigid pegs
to the dollar are dangerous when the dollar appreciates. Money targeting
doesn’t work when there is a velocity shock. CPI targeting is not
viable when there is a large import price shock. And the gold standard
fails when there are large fluctuations in the world gold market. This
paper advances a new proposal called PEP: Peg the Export Price.
Most
applicable for countries that are specialized in the production of a
particular mineral or agricultural product, the proposal calls on them
to commit to fix the price of that commodity in terms of domestic
currency. A series of simulations shows how such a proposal would have
worked for oil producers over the period 1970-2000. The paths of real
oil prices, exports, and debt are simulated under alternative regimes.
An illustrative
finding is that countries that suffered a declining
world market in oil or other export commodities in the late 1990s, would
under the PEP proposal have automatically experienced a depreciation
and a boost to exports when it was most needed. The argument for PEP is
that it simultaneously delivers automatic accommodation to terms of
trade shocks, as floating exchange rates are supposed to do, while
retaining the credibility-enhancing advantages of a nominal anchor, as
dollar pegs are supposed to do.
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SIMILAR ECONOMICS FINAL YEAR PROJECT RESEARCH TOPICS
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2. THE EFFECTS OF EXCHANGE RATE VOLATILITY ON MANUFACTURING OUTPUT IN NIGERIA
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3. EFFECTS OF MINIMUM WAGE IN PUBLIC SECTOR ON SELECTED MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES IN NIGERIA
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4. A STUDY INTO THE DETERMINANTS OF SAVINGS IN NIGERIA
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6. THE IMPACT OF MONETARY POLICY ON ECONOMIC GROWTH IN NIGERIA
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8. THE EFFECT OF TREASURY SINGLE ACCOUNT ON THE ECONOMY OF NIGERIA
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